It is the parade of former rivals. When Nikki Haley appears on the party convention stage in Milwaukee on Tuesday evening, she is received with reserve and politeness; there are also some boos against Donald Trump’s competitor in the recent primaries. Trump himself rises from his seat and applauds.

Haley knows it is a delicate appearance. She has to be flexible. She says quietly that “President Trump” asked her to speak here – as a sign of unity. “For the good of the country” we must stand by Trump’s side, she says. Then comes the punch line: There are some Americans who do not agree 100 percent with Trump. She knows some of them, she said with a wink, looking at her voters. Her message is: They don’t have to. She doesn’t do that either. But there are more similarities than differences.

Haley is followed by Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, who also bows to Trump: The country needs a real leader. The country needs Trump. Ironic punch lines are not his thing. In the primaries, DeSantis accused Trump of collecting campaign donations to cover his legal costs. And he said that Trump was mobilizing the wrong voters, namely those of the Democrats. Haley, in turn, said that Trump was not qualified for the office. He was disturbed and could not win an election. All of that is now forgotten. The two men met in the spring and buried the hatchet. And shortly before the party convention, the former governor of South Carolina called on her delegates to vote for Trump.

Kevin McCarthy, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, had already said before Haley’s appearance that she was the most important speaker at the convention alongside Trump. The Republicans are more united than in 2016 and 2020. The latter is undeniable. But JD Vance would certainly not be the only one to dispute that Haley’s speech was more important than that of Trump’s running mate on Wednesday evening.

Collective homage

Since Monday, the future of the party has become a little clearer. Trump’s official nomination as presidential candidate has become a collective tribute. He is the party. There is no doubt about that. But it is also clear that if Trump wins the election in November, he will have to step down by January 2029 at the latest. The 22nd Amendment to the Constitution, which came into force during Harry Truman’s presidency, stipulates that no president may be elected for more than two terms.

In 1940, Truman’s predecessor Franklin D. Roosevelt decided to run for a third term in 1944, faced with the threat of war in Europe, in which America was not yet directly involved. Roosevelt, who died a year later, was the only president to break the tradition started by George Washington of not running for a third term. Trump is known for not taking the law too seriously. But constitutional law is clear on this issue – and even in the event of a landslide victory in November, in which the Senate and the House of Representatives also went to the Republicans, he would not have a majority to change the constitution.

The future of the “MAGA” movement

In 2028, the party will have to enter the race with another candidate. Trump’s decision to make JD Vance his running mate is more than a personal decision about the ticket for the election in November. He did indeed choose Vance because he hopes the Senator from Ohio will win votes from the white working class in the decisive states in the Midwest. But the appointment of Vance is about more than electoral calculations. It is about the future of the “MAGA” movement.

It is no secret that Vance was once a “Never Trumper”. That was a long time ago. In 2022, he wanted to be elected to the Senate on the “Make America great again” platform. To do that, he needed Trump. A year and a half earlier, he had met the former president for the first time – in his Mar-a-Lago residence. Trump accused Vance at the time of saying some very nasty things about him. Vance apologized: Unfortunately, he had previously believed the lies of the media. Trump decided to support Vance. He won the election against a Democrat who had consciously distanced himself from the party’s left. Vance was the only Senate candidate to successfully run on the “MAGA” ticket. This in turn impressed the former president. READ FULL STORY HERE>>>CLICK HERE TO CONTINUE READING>>>

The influential television journalist Tucker Carlson had spoken to Trump on behalf of Vance in the Republican primaries in Ohio. Carlson, who was still at Fox News at the time, was one of those people who wanted to build a Trump 2.0. Someone who was just as populist but less erratic than Trump. Someone who would be able to deliver results. Vance’s former boss, investor Peter Thiel, thought similarly. Thiel initially backed DeSantis.

Once promoted by Trump, the governor of Florida later fell out with him. DeSantis ran against the former president in the primaries, but then quickly threw in the towel. Trump, as people like Carlson and Thiel had to acknowledge, continued to dominate the party. So they had to plan for the post-Trump era. Carlson grew more and more fond of Vance, whose national populist ideas he shared, in particular the fact that he described military aid to Ukraine as the greatest threat to national security and warned against immigration. When Trump began to narrow down his circle of VP candidates, Carlson, now fired by Fox News, called Mar-a-Lago and once again campaigned for Vance.

Young heir and crown prince

Vance will turn 40 in August. If he becomes Trump’s vice president in January 2025, he will be the crown prince who will one day inherit Trump’s movement. Trump is showing a certain sovereignty in this. He knows that Vance is not superior to him in terms of instinct, but he is intellectually superior. As much as Trump has made a personality cult out of his movement, he is interested in it continuing after him. When he took his seat in the box of honor at the “Fiserv Forum” on Monday evening and appeared in public for the first time since the assassination, he seemed changed. Immediately after he was shot, he had the impulse to raise his fist in a combative manner. This was followed by conciliatory tones that were certainly not without calculation. When Trump then accepted the cheers in the arena in Milwaukee, with his ear bandaged, the usual gestures of strength were missing. He seemed mild and exhausted. Later he nodded briefly. Is the shock more deeply felt in his bones?

The role of crown prince under Trump will not be an easy one for Vance. The leader of the movement must not be overshadowed. In general, Trump remains an unpredictable person who is not known for long-term strategies. Other Republicans who are looking ahead to 2028 will be watching the Trump-Vance relationship closely. It is hard to imagine that Haley and DeSantis have given up their ambitions. Glenn Youngkin, who addressed the party convention on Monday, can also be assumed to want to have a say when it comes to the future of the party. In 2021, he defeated a prominent Democratic governor in Virginia, a state that the Democrats recently believed was now part of the blue camp.

Return to the status quo ante is impossible

During the election campaign, Youngkin had shown that he too was a culture war player. He had kept Trump at a distance, but avoided open conflict with him. A year ago, the Democrats won both chambers of the Virginia state parliament. A setback for Youngking, who then decided not to run in the primaries. But it was probably not the last word.

If the “Trump/Vance ticket” fails in November, the three see their chance. Trump would then have lost two presidential elections in a row. He would certainly talk about election fraud again and possibly repeat his “Stop the Steal” campaign. But his options for turning the result around would be limited without access to the executive branch. The Republicans would soon raise the question of leadership. One argument: Trump will be 82 years old in 2028.

If Joe Biden (or another Democratic candidate) wins in November, the Republicans will reshuffle their cards and wrestle over the party’s course and leadership. There will be no return to the traditional “Grand Old Party.” Vance or DeSantis would have to prove that they can win a majority in America even without being anchored in the political center. Under Haley or Youngkin, moderate Republicans would also have a place in the party. Haley warned the convention before she left the stage: The party must not only be united. It must also expand its voter base.

Related